Photo by Laura Seaman, Unsplash
Photo by Laura Seaman, Unsplash
As Republicans face the electorate in upcoming midterms, Trump and the GOP will have to work to reclaim the support of regretful voters. Failure to do so could cost Republicans Congress in 2026 and, ultimately, the presidency in 2028.
Republished with permission from The Conversation, by Tatishe Nteta, UMass Amherst; Adam Eichen, UMass Amherst, and Jesse Rhodes, UMass Amherst
In recent months, some prominent conservatives and erstwhile allies of President Donald Trump—former U.S. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene and journalist Megyn Kelly, for example—have voiced their displeasure with him on several issues. They range from Trump’s handling of the Iran war and the economy to the release of information concerning his relationship with convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein.
Most notably, political commentator Tucker Carlson, once one of Trump’s most stalwart loyalists, expressed remorse for his previous support for the president, declaring in April 2026, “It’s not enough to say, well, I changed my mind—or like, oh, this is bad, I’m out.” Carlson said he will be “tormented” by his support for Trump “for a long time” and that he is “sorry for misleading people.”
Growing unease with the Trump administration among these former allies comes amid some of the worst polling of Trump’s career. According to data compiled by pollster G. Elliott Morris, Trump’s popularity has been steadily declining over the past year. Americans are seriously questioning his handling of key issues, such as inflation, immigration, jobs and foreign affairs.
But beyond former prominent Trump allies, are there other Trump supporters having second thoughts about their votes in the 2024 presidential election? To answer this question, we conducted a nationally representative poll of 1,000 U.S. adults who were recruited from an online panel maintained by YouGov, a survey research firm.
We asked self-identified Trump voters about their votes in the 2024 election. Our results suggest that a growing number of them—especially moderates, African Americans and young people—are experiencing voter’s remorse.
Support For Trump Remains Strong
To be clear, our survey shows that most Trump voters remain in the president’s camp.
We found that 84% of 2024 Trump voters say they would vote for Trump if given the chance to vote again in the 2024 election. That’s down 2 percentage points since we previously asked this question in July 2025.
Over 90% of members of Trump’s core base of voters—including 93% of self-identified Republican Trump voters, 95% of self-identified conservative Trump voters and 92% of Trump voters over age 55—said they would vote for Trump as they did in 2024 if given a second chance.
Regretful Trump Voters
But some groups of Trump voters are having second thoughts. The most regretful are those with whom Trump made significant gains in 2024. They include political independents, African Americans, younger people and those with more education.
Roughly 3 in 10 2024 Trump voters who identify as political moderates and African Americans said they would vote differently if the election were held again. And roughly a quarter of young and middle-aged Trump voters also suggested they would not vote for Trump if they could redo their 2024 vote.
Twenty percent of Trump supporters with postgraduate degrees expressed a reluctance to vote for Trump if given a second opportunity. Voters with some college experience and those making less than $40,000 annually reported the same sentiment in similar percentages.
Perhaps most politically perilous, 31% of independents who voted for Trump in 2024 would not vote for him again in an election do-over.
Cracks in the Coalition
What is pushing Trump voters away from the president?
There is no single cause, but our results suggest that negative perceptions of Trump’s performance on high-profile issues are playing a big role. A substantial portion of Trump voters who give the president a negative grade on the economy (22%), the Epstein files (37%) and the Iran war (49%) say they would not vote for him in an election redo.
Our results suggest that cracks are forming in the Trump coalition and that they are concentrated among the groups that before 2024 were less likely to vote for the president.
Trump may take solace in the continued loyalty of his strongest supporters. But in a close election every vote counts, and lingering dissatisfaction could undermine Republicans’ ability to mobilize key swing voters.
As Republicans face the electorate in upcoming midterms, Trump and the GOP will have to work to reclaim the support of regretful voters. Failure to do so could cost Republicans Congress in 2026 and, ultimately, the presidency in 2028.
Tatishe Nteta, Provost Professor of Political Science, UMass Amherst; Adam Eichen, Ph.D. Candidate in Political Science, UMass Amherst, and Jesse Rhodes, Associate Professor of Political Science, UMass Amherst
This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
The Conversation is a nonprofit, independent news organization dedicated to unlocking the knowledge of experts for the public good. We publish trustworthy and informative articles written by academic experts for the general public and edited by our team of journalists.
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